While Sarasota’s lifestyle amenities and steady in-migration from other states continue to attract attention, one local real estate professional points to a less-discussed factor contributing to the area’s declining sales volume: the disappearance of Canadian buyers.
Reeny Kaney, a top 3% producing realtor with RE/MAX Alliance Group in Sarasota, attributes the market’s slowdown to three concrete factors. “The hurricane, the interest rates, and our decrease in Canadian buyers,” Kaney says, identifying the trio of forces impacting transaction volume.
Kaney notes that while hurricanes and interest rates receive most of the industry’s focus, the sharp drop in Canadian purchasers marks a significant shift in the buyer pool and is reshaping sales patterns in coastal Florida markets.
The Canadian Buyer Segment’s Historical Role
Kaney’s emphasis on the decline of Canadian buyers as a primary issue suggests this group previously made up a substantial share of Sarasota’s transactions. According to Kaney, the loss of Canadian demand is now significant enough to rank alongside hurricanes and interest rates as a top reason for falling sales.
Canadian buyers have long been active in Florida real estate, drawn by the climate, favorable exchange rates, and proximity. Kaney’s observations indicate that this pattern has changed recently, leaving a gap in demand that other groups have not entirely replaced.
Kaney describes it as “our decrease in Canadian buyers,” reflecting the importance of this segment to the local market. The transition from their steady presence to noticeable absence is, according to Kaney, slowing overall sales.
Separating Desirability from Transaction Volume
Kaney notes that Sarasota remains popular for those seeking its lifestyle and amenities. “The continued growth here, the desirability of people to move here,” she says, citing attractions like public events, the arts, Selby Gardens, Ringling Museum, sports, tennis, pickleball, golf, and the waterfront.
However, Kaney makes clear that Sarasota’s appeal does not guarantee substantial sales volume. While out-of-state buyers and younger residents returning to the area signal ongoing demand, the loss of Canadian buyers is a counterweight that moderates overall sales.
“Out-of-state would be the biggest factor, and then a mix of now young people that are coming back here,” Kaney says, describing the current buyer base. But she adds that these groups are not fully compensating for Canada’s decline, especially when hurricanes and higher interest rates are also taken into account.
Multiple Pressures on Sales
Kaney’s identification of three simultaneous challenges highlights the complexity of Sarasota’s current real estate environment. She refers to “factors that caused a decrease in our sales,” emphasizing that it is the combination of issues, not any single one, driving the slowdown.
The hurricane’s impact, Kaney explains, comes from “the fact that some people had their homes destroyed and the risk of flooding in the future.” This creates supply problems from damaged homes and discourages some buyers from entering the market.
Interest rates, widely discussed as a national issue, have raised borrowing costs and slowed purchases. But Kaney argues that the additional loss of Canadian buyers compounds the effect on transaction volume, a factor she says is often overlooked in broader market discussions.
Currency and Cross-Border Dynamics
Kaney does not specify the reasons for the decline in Canadian buyers but points to longstanding influences such as currency exchange rates, Canadian economic conditions, and changes in cross-border buyer preferences. The relative value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar has historically played a significant role in these purchases, and shifts in this relationship can quickly reduce Canadian buying power.
Regardless of the underlying causes, Kaney reports a clear drop in Canadian demand, which she says was once a reliable part of Sarasota’s coastal market. This shift leaves out-of-state Americans and returning younger residents to fill the gap, but so far, their activity has not matched the loss.
Implications for Market Forecasting
Kaney’s analysis suggests that accurate market forecasting in Sarasota now depends on monitoring specific buyer segments rather than relying solely on broad demand trends. She argues that Sarasota’s enduring appeal and lifestyle advantages do not automatically translate into strong sales if key buyer groups, like Canadians, pull back.
Looking ahead, Kaney is focused on “just continued sales” as the primary metric. “Really, just continued sales,” she repeats, stressing that the central challenge is maintaining transaction volume rather than seeking price increases or larger market share.
Kaney does not foresee additional challenges beyond hurricanes, interest rates, and the decline in Canadian b”yedon’tI don’t there’s any other challenges,” s”e says. I think it’s just consistency in managing these existing pressures.
Whether the decline in Canadian buyers is a temporary reaction or a lasting change will influence how Florida’s coastal markets perform relative to their lifestyle—Kaney’s. Kaney’s experience underscores that tracking which buyer segments are growing or shrinking is as essential as following general market sentiment or migration data. For Sarasota, the next phase will depend on whether new demand sources can fully replace what has been lost.
